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anaplatform Data Consultancy
Healthcare Solutions

High quality medical annotation services by experts

Coronavirus Prediction

Case Study - Coronavirus Prediction

In this study, our machine learning model is applied to the Coronovirus dataset to predict the risk of this disease in an individual. An end-to end process is used where people must enter their details in the web application and submit the data. The real-time processing takes place, and the risk is predicted within a few seconds.

The web application that is used as a real-time database on the cloud is the cloud-native database. Th trained parameters of the model are stored in the database, and prediction is done in real-time.

Further, the user is also notified of the accuracy of the model. Apart from this, the news article from trusted sources is also shared in the app in real-time.

As in all disease prediction models, patient data will be preprocessed first. The second step will be the first step that defines the prediction model. Many parameters and hyperparameters must be set when defining the model. These elements have a very significant effect on accuracy, they can also prevent under-fitting and overfitting of our prediction model. The third step is to fit the data to the model and finally the fourth step will be to verify the model accuracy.

How we predict the Coronovirus ?

The main aspects of the service is as follow

  • An efficient automated disease diagnosis model is designed using the machine learning models.
  • A critical disease is selected such as Coronovirus.
  • In the proposed service, the data are entered into an web app, the analysis is then performed in a real-time database using a pretrained machine learning model on the cloud which was trained on the same dataset and deployed in the cloud, and finally, the disease detection result is shown in the android app.
  • Logistic regression is used to carry out computation for prediction.
Data

The first part is about preparing and preprocessing the data. This part discusses different features related to each other and also how some features are eliminated from the process.

Coronovirus Data

The load data consists of 70,000 data points.Out of the features listed in the table, the features used include “age,” “gender,” “height,” “weight,” “cholesterol,” “gluc,” “smoke,” “alco,” “ap_hi,” and “ap_lo.”. There were some outliers. *e value of systolic blood pressure above 200 and the value of diastolic pressure above 150 are referred to as outliers here. A snapshot of the dataset is shown below.

The dataset can be seen as below. Dataset has demographic properies of the invidiual as wel as habits.

Coronovirus dataset used in this study has features shown below.

Id

Age

Gender

Height

Weight

Ap_lo

Cholesterol

Gluc

Smoc

Alco

Active

Cardio

0

18393

2

168

62.0

110

80

1

1

0

1

0

1

20228

1

156

85.0

140

90

3

1

0

1

1

2

18857

1

165

64.0

130

70

3

1

0

0

1

3

17623

2

169

82.0

150

100

80

1

0

1

1

4

17474

2

158

58.0

100

60

80

1

0

0

0

For analysis of features, a heat map was drawn as below. According to the heat map, the most important features in determining coronovirus include systolic and diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol, and age.


Features in Coronovirus dataset

The most important features in determining coronovirus shown in the table as below.

Feature

Description

Age

Date confirmation

Sex

Symptoms

City

lives_in_Wuhan

Province

travel_history_dates

Country

travel_history_location

Wuhan?

reported_market_exposure

Latitude

Additional information

Longitude

chronic_disease_binary

geo_resolution

chronic_disease

date_onset_symptoms

Source

Implementation
Implementation for Forecasting

After cleaning and analyzing the dataset, machine learning models were applied. The logistic regression model is used for all the datasets. To make the prediction, the coefficients and intercept of all the three logistic regression models are stored in a cloud-native real-time database.

Results

Below figure hows an example of prediction in our web app. From the comparative analysis, it is found that among the existing models, the proposed model outperforms the competitive models in terms of various performance measures.


Conclusion

This case study provides insights into using the machine learning models to predict the risk of heart disease in an individual based on answering a few questions related to various factors like travel history, age, gender, and blood pressure. Logistic regression is used for prediction.

The findings in this diagnosis service can be helpful in the early screening of potential heart disease patients. It can be helpful in the sense that the first screening can be performed at the comfort of home. If a high risk of disease is predicted in a patient, then it can be followed by clinical trials for confirmation.

Have a Question ?

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